LAB ENTRY / EX—001
Tiny Oracle
A pocket-sized ritual for recording small predictions and learning from calibration rather than confidence.
Weekend Prototype
Mar 2026
The question
Can a deliberately tiny forecasting game improve everyday probabilistic thinking?
The hypothesis
Low-stakes, frequent predictions will teach calibration better than occasional high-stakes forecasts.
What I built
Only a paper flow and a small data model so far. The experiment has not entered implementation.
What happened
The question survived a two-week cooling-off period, which is enough to keep it in the archive as an idea.
What worked
The constraint of one sentence, one probability, and one resolution date feels clear.
What failed
No test yet. The main risk is creating another habit tool that requires more discipline than it teaches.
What surprised me
Writing the resolution rule is harder—and more useful—than choosing the probability.
What I learned
A forecast is only testable when the outcome is defined before the result arrives.
What happens next
Build the smallest offline version and use it privately for thirty predictions.